Powergrid moneycontrol4/16/2023 We expect capitalisation of INR120bn for FY23 and FY24 each. It has INR533bn worth of projects in hand and a bidding opportunity for INR318.5bn worth over the next year. PGCIL declared a final dividend of INR2.25/share, taking the overall FY22 payout to INR14.75/sh (~6.6% yield). While EBITDA grew 1.5% YoY, reported PAT was up 22.9% YoY to INR43.2bn (mainly due to a deferred tax adjustment in the quarter). Q4 revenue increased 2.8% YoY, led by moderate growth in transmission, marginally offset by 12% decline in telecom segment sales. Capitalisation/Capex for FY22 stood at INR207bn/90.6bn, vs. PGCIL: PGCIL's asset capitalisation/Capex in Q4FY22 declined 75.5%YoY/44.0% YoY to ~INR21.8bn/INR18.1bn, on a high YoY base. GRM was reported at USD 12.44/bbl (HSIE: USD 13.5/bbl). Q4FY22 EBITDA, at INR 21bn, was 14% below our estimates, mainly due to higher other expenses however, APAT of INR 18bn was 38% above estimates due to higher-than-expected other income and lower tax expenses. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) with a price target of INR 270 is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products (2) improvement in refining margins over the coming 18 months and (3) gradual improvement in marketing margins for FY23-24 vis-vis FY22 levels. The company has received approval for Kwar Hydroelectric project worth INR45bn and it is foraying into green hydrogen technology, for which it has signed two MoUs with. With Parbati IV and Subansiri expected to be commission partially in FY24, NHPC's capacity is expected to reach 8521MW and regulated equity is expected to increase by 70% by FY24 to INR220bn. PAT for the quarter came in at INR10.5bn (+15.0% YoY). NHPC reported revenue of INR25.9bn (+19.5% YoY), led by 11.4% YoY increase in generation, while EBITDA grew 10% YoY to INR14.1bn. As a result, incentives and deviation charges increased 36.6% YoY and 90% YoY respectively in Q1FY23. NHPC: NHPC operated at a PAF of 98.6% in Q1FY23 vs 92.5% YoY. Reiterate BUY with a revised TP of INR 867 (from INR807 earlier) as we roll forward to June-22 estimates. Also, near-term cost headwinds are likely to be partially mitigated by favourable currency movement and healthy revenue growth. Overseas subsidiary margins are expected to normalise as the US Al forging facility ramps to full capacity. Going forward, we expect standalone demand momentum to be strong for BHFC, led by: (1) sustained recovery in domestic demand, both in auto and non-auto segments (2) strong export demand in PVs and aerospace and stable demand from oil and gas. However, overseas subsidiary margin declined 350bps QoQ to 4.7% due to the recently commissioned US Al facility and sharp rise in energy costs in Europe. Bharat Forge: Bharat Forge (BHFC) standalone Q1 earnings at INR 1.6bn were in line with our estimates.
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